Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12451

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.193). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12450, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12451
    28 Oct 2026, 00:35 UTC

    CADM2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCADM2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf39e778495dec68b

    discovery+0.48 p=0.193 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.193)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7c4bf8e03fec4684c305f0a6…
    follows 2ce51e72cf9b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12451: CADM2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CADM2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.