Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12412

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12411, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12412
    27 Oct 2026, 23:40 UTC

    PTAFR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTAFR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered71ace1b5ddfea4a2

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8d3ee2d7d950e101edeb1316…
    follows cc8df594d1e7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12412: PTAFR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTAFR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.