Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12411

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12410, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12411
    27 Oct 2026, 23:40 UTC

    PTAFR

    microglia, braak

    predictionPTAFR in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered53a146f1f4d0646c

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cc8df594d1e76cc99f8becee…
    follows d9e2ad975215…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12411: PTAFR in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTAFR in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.