Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12368

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.724). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12367, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12368
    27 Oct 2026, 22:39 UTC

    SH3KBP1

    microglia, braak

    predictionSH3KBP1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc6383359c2cc348

    discovery-0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    replication-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.724)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9818d99edef7a63ce46f94c0…
    follows a453f915fc70…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12368: SH3KBP1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3KBP1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.