Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12360

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12359, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12360
    27 Oct 2026, 22:26 UTC

    APBB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPBB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d628732792f84ce

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8d63b597e659b0f884177161…
    follows a2a7c9d90db0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12360: APBB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.02, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APBB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.