Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12359

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12358, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12359
    27 Oct 2026, 22:25 UTC

    APBB1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAPBB1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b0bc598a917fcc6

    discovery-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.092 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a2a7c9d90db0aeea29c12621…
    follows ff7336319a52…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12359: APBB1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APBB1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.