Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1226

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out +0.01 p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1225, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1226
    17 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC

    EPS15L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPS15L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4ab0e9e78f7012e3

    discovery-0.69 p=0.041 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.041; held-out +0.01 p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a2ca1fe7119533af4d23a011…
    follows a5af509175a5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1226: EPS15L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs -0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPS15L1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up EPS15L1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.53 p 0.062 (needs p < 0.0011)