Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12205

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12204, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12205
    27 Oct 2026, 18:49 UTC

    RUSC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRUSC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a3b57acac541cf8

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b654cf65d9e44a17ae3d38e…
    follows a901e8a42acc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12205: RUSC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.05, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RUSC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RUSC1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 1.8e-4)