Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12169

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.85 p 0.0038; held-out -0.10 p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12168, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12169
    27 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

    SFXN5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSFXN5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4f44bc6c80a728ef

    discovery-0.85 p=0.0038 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.85 p 0.0038; held-out -0.10 p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1e70d37169f77ba074d8a8ff…
    follows 24d471c77f08…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12169: SFXN5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18) vs -0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SFXN5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SFXN5 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)