Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12168

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.635). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12167, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12168
    27 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

    SFXN5

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSFXN5 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda97dafc9b4a84ab1

    discovery+0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.635)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    24d471c77f083f65cff49745…
    follows 1e8745c66359…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12168: SFXN5 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18) vs -0.12 in astrocytes. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SFXN5 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SFXN5 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 1.8e-4)