Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12148

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12147, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12148
    27 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC

    NEU4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEU4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered008617e941d61d94

    discovery-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c759d78345383c8c352077d…
    follows bf843f57d7f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12148: NEU4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEU4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.