Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12147

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12146, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12147
    27 Oct 2026, 17:32 UTC

    NEU4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNEU4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52e971f6aadc2ba4

    discovery+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bf843f57d7f4165b6058a0c6…
    follows cef66aafc6b5…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12147: NEU4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.06, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEU4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.