Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12125

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12124, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12125
    27 Oct 2026, 17:04 UTC

    AGPAT4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAGPAT4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcc630ca85c1b4dd1

    discovery+0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cc7f855efc44e840fb09663f…
    follows 4796bb653285…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12125: AGPAT4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.11, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AGPAT4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.