Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12111

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12110, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12111
    27 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC

    PRKG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRKG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf9d17c9d3ad9d524

    discovery+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6f96c7bc21f5c15b7443727e…
    follows 1364382ad9f0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12111: PRKG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKG2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.