Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12040

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out -0.15 p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12039, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12040
    27 Oct 2026, 15:14 UTC

    IFITM3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIFITM3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered155dfbad36c114a8

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0054 n=9

    replication-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0054; held-out -0.15 p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0d949ae2f9710b6d7341c310…
    follows 3bb2fa1f37c7…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12040: IFITM3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.057, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18) vs -0.50 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFITM3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up IFITM3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.65 p 0.021 (needs p < 1.8e-4)