Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12020

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12019, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12020
    27 Oct 2026, 14:47 UTC

    PRDM16

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPRDM16 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered51161b31a65cf01f

    discovery+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b043ffcd514684a0586c78fc…
    follows ca2aaf86200a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12020: PRDM16 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRDM16 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.