Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11974

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.235). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11973, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11974
    27 Oct 2026, 13:43 UTC

    MAL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf0358341ccfba3dc

    discovery+0.44 p=0.235 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.235)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2cf0ba1df3f983d62eafe053…
    follows acef0459e0f8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11974: MAL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.