Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11971

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11970, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11971
    27 Oct 2026, 13:41 UTC

    TBC1D9

    microglia, braak

    predictionTBC1D9 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7115fc360d85ae1a

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7d44c2bda06355ac4f4aaaa9…
    follows ceedfdc821bb…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11971: TBC1D9 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D9 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.