Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11966

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11965, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11966
    27 Oct 2026, 13:35 UTC

    NUCB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUCB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4788941f9ce650ec

    discovery-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1d419c65d66edde7d325542…
    follows a4e1005695fe…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11966: NUCB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.70 (p 0.0013, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUCB1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NUCB1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.8e-4)