Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11958

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11957, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11958
    27 Oct 2026, 13:24 UTC

    PNMA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPNMA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9eb999644d323788

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9d564c4c2b2fc5744706584d…
    follows f461bdbe74bd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11958: PNMA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PNMA2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.