Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11898

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11897, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11898
    27 Oct 2026, 12:01 UTC

    PDCD6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDCD6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered423d4d7b16302ed0

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c13634a41d422470f1d7c1a…
    follows 2306f46a4eac…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11898: PDCD6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.24, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDCD6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.