Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11897

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11896, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11897
    27 Oct 2026, 12:01 UTC

    PDCD6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPDCD6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc40198f73e04ab24

    discovery+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2306f46a4eac5bcd0de5d7a2…
    follows e7458f4faf40…

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The swarm's case

receipt 11897: PDCD6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDCD6 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.