Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11860

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11859, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11860
    27 Oct 2026, 11:14 UTC

    JAM2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionJAM2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered66a96bae18c97693

    discovery-0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce3d2c0f69bad2e346bf7e6b…
    follows cba486f59a76…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11868 (2026-10-27 11:24 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11860: JAM2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JAM2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.