Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11856

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11855, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11856
    27 Oct 2026, 11:08 UTC

    SERPINH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSERPINH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8eda0be4431c4d03

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b7daadec72df3605e8cc2397…
    follows 06c047ec6165…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11868 (2026-10-27 11:24 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11856: SERPINH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.66 (p 0.0028, n 18) vs -0.39 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINH1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SERPINH1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.38 p 0.183 (needs p < 1.9e-4)