Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11837

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.570). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11836, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11837
    27 Oct 2026, 10:43 UTC

    FUT8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionFUT8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f3cba9eab05591f

    discovery+0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.570)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a4071d86a73b46931292233f…
    follows 8f22ee73874b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11841 (2026-10-27 10:49 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11837: FUT8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FUT8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.