Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11749

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.24 p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11748, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11749
    27 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    NOTCH4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNOTCH4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa25a8b96745883b

    discovery-0.84 p=0.0043 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.84 p 0.0043; held-out -0.24 p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    73eaae591961167b5f2ebe6b…
    follows 41b5259fadba…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11764 (2026-10-27 09:03 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11749: NOTCH4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NOTCH4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.