Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11698

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11697, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11698
    27 Oct 2026, 07:36 UTC

    APC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73ccf024eeb8255f

    discovery-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.029 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4952bcf3d5f2ec380383bad1…
    follows 87ec4f5d4f2b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11710 (2026-10-27 07:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11698: APC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.