Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11697

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.723). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11696, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11697
    27 Oct 2026, 07:36 UTC

    APC

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionAPC in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered583d6ae50cc09773

    discovery+0.14 p=0.723 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.723)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    87ec4f5d4f2b7c2ad7324676…
    follows ef64660f799f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11710 (2026-10-27 07:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11697: APC in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APC in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.