Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11607

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11606, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11607
    27 Oct 2026, 05:40 UTC

    PDGFB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDGFB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda205b1186c6386c4

    discovery-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c5192c398ade7ed4e12842f…
    follows 325a1573e79e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11607: PDGFB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDGFB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.