Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1153

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1152, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1153
    17 Oct 2026, 15:49 UTC

    RPS6KC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS6KC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc3810336512bd5bd

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    103808575c8a540f418d3c6a…
    follows 26216a0380cb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1153: RPS6KC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.68 (p 0.0019, n 18) vs +0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS6KC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RPS6KC1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.10 p 0.722 (needs p < 0.0011)