Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11352

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.89 p 0.0011; held-out -0.30 p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11351, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11352
    27 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC

    MASP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMASP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered60e5883e05f467e1

    discovery-0.89 p=0.0011 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.89 p 0.0011; held-out -0.30 p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c3e248095ef06f798d68e8f3…
    follows 0fc694c75154…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11372 (2026-10-27 01:00 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11352: MASP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.13. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.73 (p 6.6e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MASP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.