Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11351

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.892). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11350, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11351
    27 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC

    MASP1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMASP1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3c6d4676145a981

    discovery-0.05 p=0.892 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.892)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0fc694c75154e8f5b115f163…
    follows 515d2d589e9e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11372 (2026-10-27 01:00 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11351: MASP1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MASP1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.