Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11309

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out -0.21 p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11308, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11309
    26 Oct 2026, 23:32 UTC

    ABI3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABI3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1f67ec657d20344

    discovery-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out -0.21 p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c6bca62f80f3fc4ff1c30a47…
    follows 772126300ec0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11319 (2026-10-26 23:45 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11309: ABI3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.68 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABI3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.