Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11308

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.464). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11307, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11308
    26 Oct 2026, 23:32 UTC

    ABI3

    microglia, braak

    predictionABI3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered181fbdb51e3626f6

    discovery-0.28 p=0.464 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.298 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.464)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    772126300ec0159a3f88fdac…
    follows 091b741d7f10…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11319 (2026-10-26 23:45 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11308: ABI3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABI3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.