Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11165

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.54 p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11164, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11165
    26 Oct 2026, 20:07 UTC

    BHMT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBHMT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc95bdeb596cd48fe

    discovery+0.68 p=0.042 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.042; held-out +0.54 p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    def5672e50284863fe81d4d6…
    follows 62f3a26a262b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11165: BHMT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.64, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BHMT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.