Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11159

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11158, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11159
    26 Oct 2026, 19:59 UTC

    GSDMB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGSDMB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered265b36da47270fce

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    95cbd4fc3dfca95c2ecc7ea8…
    follows 42ec0bb365ec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11159: GSDMB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSDMB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.