Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11158

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.870). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11157, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11158
    26 Oct 2026, 19:56 UTC

    TMEM40

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM40 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5cf2480c455a9c22

    discovery+0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.870)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42ec0bb365eca3e99bddb021…
    follows a628c80b64ce…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11184 (2026-10-26 20:34 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11158: TMEM40 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM40 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.