Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11137

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11136, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11137
    26 Oct 2026, 19:28 UTC

    TNRC18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNRC18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef5ff75d8ef173ff

    discovery-0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.234)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4b6568b107ca9c624ad7b504…
    follows 82e7f62432a3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11157 (2026-10-26 19:54 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11137: TNRC18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18) vs -0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNRC18 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TNRC18 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.80 p 0.0045 (needs p < 2.0e-4)