Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11073

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11072, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11073
    26 Oct 2026, 17:57 UTC

    MICAL3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMICAL3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0a14de2eee7f1bf0

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ea463b3aa4f95d2ba686034…
    follows d2329ffa4c8d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11075 (2026-10-26 17:59 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11073: MICAL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MICAL3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.