Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10990

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10989, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10990
    26 Oct 2026, 16:03 UTC

    NFATC2IP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFATC2IP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered16b15c1fc9a85b0f

    discovery-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8dfe04bb1b707b62d89b8fe6…
    follows d8ff8a6a0631…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10998 (2026-10-26 16:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10990: NFATC2IP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFATC2IP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.