Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10989

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10988, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10989
    26 Oct 2026, 16:02 UTC

    CD80

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD80 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c4756323b0a7245

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8ff8a6a0631fe4070d1080e…
    follows 38ca38a755cf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10998 (2026-10-26 16:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10989: CD80 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD80 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.