Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10980

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10979, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10980
    26 Oct 2026, 15:49 UTC

    MARS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMARS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7049209a98876262

    discovery+0.07 p=0.856 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.856)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6b84b68f0f6a8aef9b78b6e…
    follows 455a257be6b2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10998 (2026-10-26 16:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10980: MARS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MARS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.