Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10915

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10914, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10915
    26 Oct 2026, 14:17 UTC

    HILPDA

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionHILPDA in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereded2a9346d74a170b

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f19639638f276d4a4c12c96e…
    follows 53cb9c349fae…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10915: HILPDA in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HILPDA in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.