Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10914

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10913, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10914
    26 Oct 2026, 14:14 UTC

    PPARGC1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPARGC1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd9cc25fbca588ac

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    53cb9c349fae0ab1e203bdc7…
    follows e89fab9e2a3d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10917 (2026-10-26 14:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10914: PPARGC1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.221, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPARGC1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.