Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10884

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10883, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10884
    26 Oct 2026, 13:29 UTC

    BCL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9320efb36f100892

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39f1698b5ea50c4cb23e2593…
    follows c34e79ac5571…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10891 (2026-10-26 13:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10884: BCL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.