Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10878

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10877, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10878
    26 Oct 2026, 13:19 UTC

    MSMB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMSMB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a622bda27df6a35

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    312e46c1d38e7f31ee6ec6f5…
    follows a304c23845e7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10891 (2026-10-26 13:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10878: MSMB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MSMB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.