Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10798
    26 Oct 2026, 11:33 UTC

    TLR5

    microglia, braak

    predictionTLR5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5b15516aa917046b

    discovery-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c46b7e675bce04222a4cdc56…
    follows 593702ec573c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10798: TLR5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TLR5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.