Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10441

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10440, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10441
    26 Oct 2026, 03:31 UTC

    TPD52L2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPD52L2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8b7cd7aba2a38343

    discovery-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5c94a2fd6e53bb4d6864da51…
    follows a7448268cd3b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10441: TPD52L2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPD52L2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.