Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10440

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10439, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10440
    26 Oct 2026, 03:31 UTC

    TPD52L2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTPD52L2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered47dbeb43f9ffe70f

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.435 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a7448268cd3bd81c4ab19123…
    follows b79d6b14e51a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10440: TPD52L2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.13, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPD52L2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.