Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10255

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10254, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10255
    26 Oct 2026, 00:12 UTC

    RING1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRING1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredab3c98d433325ca7

    discovery+0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1993b957a5452f8d3a67a613…
    follows 1e35b472b8f0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10255: RING1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RING1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.